Galaxy poll shows swing to Coalition in marginal seats

The latest polling has led television news reports tonight to claim the election will be decided by the religious vote based on results in marginal seats. Crikey.com.au's Poll Bludger blog has the following report:

'We learn via Channel Nine that Galaxy has conducted a poll of two marginal seats in NSW, Macarthur and Eden-Monaro, and two in Queensland, Bonner and Bowman. We are told only of a 2.8 per cent swing against Labor, which I’m guessing means a composite result of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition from the four seats in question, which collectively produced a Labor two-party vote of about 51.8 per cent in 2007. On the primary vote, Labor is said to be down six points to 39 per cent and the Coalition steady on 44 per cent.'

Nielson Poll results are expected at 10.40am tonight