Greens could have 10 in Senate while Family First out: Morgan poll

Roy Morgan Research has released the first Senate polling for this election showing The Greens strongly increasing their vote and Family First losing its Victorian Senator although in with a chance in South Australia.

Conducted in July and involving interviews with more than 5000 participants nationwide, the poll shows: 'support for the ALP in the Senate was 40 per cent (down 0.3 per cent since the November 24, 2007 half-Senate election). Coalition support was 36 per cent (down 3.9 per cent) and Greens support 15.5 per cent (up 6.5 per cent). Support for minor parties was Family First 2.5 per cent (up 0.9per cent), One Nation 0.5per cent (up 0.1per cent), and other parties and independent candidates 5.5 per cent (down 3.3 per cent).

'On these figures the Senate composition would be ALP 33-34 Senators, LNP 31-32 Senators, Greens 10 Senators and 1 Independent, Nick Xenophon...'

In Victoria, while the Family First vote has remained the same (about 2.5 per cent), according to the Morgan poll, the decision by Labor to preference The Greens makes it nearly impossible for Senator Fielding to be elected.

However in South Australia, the Family First vote is up to 3.5 per cent and although this far from a quota, it may help Family First survive long enough to gain some preference boosts. The confusing thing in SA is that Nixk Xenophon polled 3.5 per cent even though he is not up for election this time. So once voters realise he is not there, a flow to other minor parties or independents may occur.

There are 76 members in the Senate and currently the ALP has 32, the Coalition 37, with five Greens, one Family First and one independent. To get something through, the Government needs 39 votes. For legislation to be blocked, 38 votes are needed. Half of the senate seats are up for election on August 21 - six in each states and one each in the ACT and Northern Territory.

Check out the full Senate poll results.