Friday, July 16, 2010

Penrith preferences telling for federal poll

Western Sydney will be a crucial battlefield in the upcoming federal election and so some aspects of the results from the recent state Penrith by-election have special importance.

While the election was largely fought on state and electorate issues, the performance of minor parties and preference flows may translate federally.

The Greens received 12.1 per cent of the primary vote (6.6+) with 21.5 per cent of preferences flowing to Labor and 13.2 to Liberal. More than 65 per cent of Green votes 'exhausted' which means these voters chose not to preference.

The Christian Democratic Party was the next biggest of the minor parties with 4.4% of the vote (1.8-) with 11.2 per cent preferences to Labor and 49.1 per cent to Liberal. Only 39.7 of CDP votes exhausted, the lowest for any candidate.

Point of interest include the strong performance of the Greens in an area not usually associated with the Green vote and the general reluctance of the Green voters to preference the major parties.

The CDP must be disappointed to have lost votes at a time when the sitting member and Labor was heavily on the nose. On the positive, it is still a reasonable primary vote which sends a message regarding the importance of CDP voters and their preferences in tight election results, such as may occur in the federal poll.

Source: Preference flow information from Antony Green Election Blog.

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