Friday, August 20, 2010

Double hung parliament a real possibility

As Australian's go to bed on election night, they might find they wake up Sunday morning, not with a hang over, but a double hung parliament.

Most opinion polls now have the two-party preferred vote as 50-50 with Labor's primary vote of about 36 per cent boosted by a large flow of Green preferences.

There are already three independents in the House of Representatives, Tony Windsor, Bob Katter and Rob Oakeshott, who all stand a good chance of being re-elected while the Greens may win won inner city seat.

As the three current independents are either former Nationals or holding seats formerly held by the Nationals, the Coalition may have first chance of negotiating a government, however all three are in favour of Labor's national broadband plan and so this is far from clear cut.

Tony Windsor said that in the event of a hung parliament, the cross bench members would get together to work out how to proceed. Which party had the most seats and the best deal for regional Australia would be factors.

An interesting sidelight is that in the inner city seats of Melbourne, Sydney and Grandlyer, the Liberals have preferenced the Greens on their how vote card which might mean a Green candidate gets elected. They would be much less likely to deal with the Coalition.

In the Senate, unless the Coalitions picks up seats or one of the other minor parties pull of a miracle, the Greens will hold the balance of power. This means a slightly right leaning cross bench in the lower house and a left leaning Senate.

Read more hung parliament analysis:

They deserve a hung parliament: MP
'Double hung' parliament on cards
Greens prefer Labor in a hung parliament
Markets dread a hung parliament

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